By Staff Writer

Botswana’s ability to adapt to unexpected challenges, rather than simply follow government plans, will determine whether it succeeds in a rapidly changing political and economic landscape, analyst Professor Jean-Pierre de la Porte has said.

Addressing governance and economic issues this week, Professor de la Porte argued that effective leadership is less about rigidly implementing policies and more about responding quickly to real-world problems as they emerge.

Using the analogy of a swimming lesson, he said governments can draw up detailed plans and strategies, but true success comes when institutions learn to navigate unpredictable conditions.

“You do not learn to swim by copying the instructor’s movements. You learn when your body finds a way to move with the wave,” he said.

The remarks come as Botswana adjusts to a new political era following the change of government two years ago. According to Professor de la Porte, ministries that had operated under one political system for decades are now confronting new leadership, declining diamond revenues, climate pressures and shifting economic realities.

While he welcomed the government’s Economic Transformation Programme, which contains 186 projects aimed at creating jobs and attracting investment by 2036, he cautioned that plans alone cannot guarantee results.

“A list like that is useful, but the list is a drawing of strokes. It’s not the wave,” he said, arguing that implementation requires institutions capable of adapting to changing circumstances.

Lessons from recent crises

Professor de la Porte pointed to several examples where Botswana’s public sector had demonstrated adaptability.

One was the 2025 medicines shortage that forced the government to declare a public health emergency after failures within the national medical supply chain. He said the rapid deployment of the Botswana Defence Force to redistribute medicines, the release of emergency funding and efforts to establish a forecasting centre for medicine demand showed a willingness to solve problems rather than simply assign blame.

He also highlighted the use of “land labs”, small cross-sector teams established to address long-standing bottlenecks in land administration and development approvals.

According to Professor de la Porte, one economic zone saw 82 plots receive title deeds after the intervention, demonstrating how collaborative problem-solving can unblock development projects.

“That is exactly what learning looks like,” he said.

The analyst also cited the revival of the Public Service Bargaining Council following disputes over travel allowance regulations. The engagement between government, unions and other stakeholders, he said, reflected an effort to resolve issues before they became crises.

“People are agreeing to swim before the wave arrives,” he remarked.

Fear of failure slowing decision-making

Despite these positive examples, Professor de la Porte warned that excessive reliance on audits, investigations and compliance mechanisms can create a culture of risk aversion within government.

He argued that fear of being publicly blamed or investigated often discourages officials from making decisions, leading to delays and stalled projects.

“Imagine a pool where every stroke is filmed, and anyone who makes a splash is named in an inquiry. What would you do? You would stop swimming,” he said.

While stressing the importance of accountability, he called for systems that encourage learning and innovation rather than punishing every mistake.

Among his proposals were regular reviews that bring together affected communities, frontline officials and decision-makers to jointly diagnose problems and identify solutions without immediately assigning blame.

He also called for stronger legal protections for public servants who take reasonable risks to solve problems in good faith.

Economic caution

Professor de la Porte further warned that Botswana remains economically vulnerable despite signs of short-term fiscal stability.

He noted that recent improvements in government finances were partly supported by a one-off dividend from the Bank of Botswana and should not be mistaken for a full recovery.

The country also faces continued pressure to diversify its economy and reduce dependence on diamond revenues amid an uncertain global environment.

With general elections scheduled for 2029, he urged both government and opposition parties to focus less on rhetoric and more on demonstrating how they would solve practical challenges facing citizens.

Governance measured by results

Professor de la Porte concluded that Botswana’s future success should be judged not by how closely government follows plans, but by how effectively it responds to unexpected events.

“Learning to swim is not finished when you stop drowning. It is finished when you can move with water you did not choose and did not draw,” he said.

He argued that in an era of economic uncertainty, climate pressures, and political change, adaptability may prove to be Botswana’s most important governance skill.